美国高院叫停“对等关税” 各方利益博弈进入新阶段

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump did not have the authority to impose large-scale tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), leading to the cessation of "reciprocal tariffs" and an increase in global trade uncertainty [3][5]. Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling and Its Implications - The Supreme Court's decision, which was passed with a 6-3 vote, denied Trump's ability to impose tariffs under IEEPA, stating that while the act allows the president to manage imports in emergencies, it does not grant the power to levy tariffs [5]. - The ruling signifies a critical check on presidential power, emphasizing the need for legal constraints on executive authority, particularly in the context of Trump's attempts to expand presidential powers [5]. Group 2: Continuation of High Tariffs - Despite the Supreme Court ruling, Trump's administration plans to maintain high tariffs, with a new 15% tariff on goods from all countries announced immediately after the ruling [6]. - The effective tariff level in the U.S. has reached 16.9%, the highest since World War II, with specific tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles still in place [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Political Ramifications - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to reach a record high of $1.24 trillion in 2025, indicating that Trump's tariff policies have not effectively reduced the trade deficit or revitalized U.S. manufacturing [8]. - Public sentiment regarding inflation remains negative, with many Americans attributing price increases to tariffs, potentially leading to a decline in Trump's support [8]. Group 4: Reactions from Trade Partners - Major trading partners have cautiously welcomed the Supreme Court's ruling but expressed concerns over the uncertainty introduced by Trump's new tariffs under the Trade Act of 1974 [9]. - The ability of Trump to leverage high tariffs as a threat against trade partners is expected to be significantly limited due to legal constraints on imposing tariffs above 15% without substantial evidence of unfair trade practices [9].