宏观利好共振，有色板块迎投资窗口？ 从“硬资产轮动”到有色重估：机构眼中的2026主线

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, represented by gold and silver, has shown a strong upward trend since the Spring Festival, driven by "hedging" and "stagflation trading" dynamics [1] Group 1: Hedging Logic - Global macro uncertainties are providing fundamental support for the prices of non-ferrous metals, including precious metals [4] - The reversal of U.S. tariff policies, with the Supreme Court ruling against large-scale tariffs from the Trump administration, has led to increased trade friction and market risk aversion [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and U.S.-Iran tensions, are heightening global risk aversion, prompting investors to diversify into "hard assets" like precious metals and copper [5] Group 2: Stagflation Trading - Recent U.S. economic data indicates a slowdown, with projected GDP growth for 2025 at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, marking the lowest growth since 2021 [6] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December 2025 is expected to rise by 3.0%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, raising concerns about stagflation [6] - Stagflation, characterized by stagnant economic growth and high inflation, typically benefits commodities due to their inflation-hedging properties [7] Group 3: Focus on Non-Ferrous Core Assets - As the market transitions into a "profit-driven growth phase" by 2026, the strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals is expected to manifest, presenting revaluation opportunities [8] - The ongoing issuance of the Silver Hua Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Connect (Class A: 026458; Class C: 026459) offers a convenient investment tool for investors seeking exposure to core assets in the non-ferrous sector [8] - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, as of February 24, 2026, shows significant representation across various sectors, including copper (29.6%), gold (14.9%), aluminum (14.7%), rare earths (8.3%), and lithium (6.5%) [10]