双属性加持白银领跑 超买压力拖累黄金 —— Wmax 贵金属市场研判

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is currently experiencing extreme differentiation, with gold showing signs of structural pullback risk due to historical overbought conditions, while silver is leading the market due to its dual role as a safe-haven and industrial asset, potentially achieving the longest consecutive monthly gains on record [2][6][10]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold has stabilized above the critical support level of $5,100 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid trade policy uncertainties, but faces significant structural pullback risks due to historical overbought momentum readings [3][10]. - The major resistance zone for gold is identified between $5,200 and $5,300 per ounce, with current momentum showing signs of exhaustion, resembling patterns seen before previous sharp declines [5]. - A critical support level is set at $5,100 per ounce; if gold falls below this level, it may face further consolidation risks, with potential declines to $4,800, $4,630, and $4,380 [5][10]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver has outperformed gold year-to-date, with a current price around $88.90 per ounce and a monthly increase of approximately 4.3%, positioning it as the preferred hedging asset in the market [7][10]. - The dual attributes of silver as both an investment safe-haven and an industrial metal, combined with a projected supply deficit of 67 million ounces by 2026, underpin its strong medium to long-term upward trajectory [6][9]. - Short-term fluctuations in silver prices are expected due to profit-taking and sensitivity to economic cycles, but the overall upward trend remains intact unless there is a fundamental shift in global monetary policy or a sudden collapse in industrial demand [9][10].