海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录-华泰证券

Group 1 - The high-end consumption market in China shows initial signs of recovery in 2025, characterized by rational recovery and structural differentiation, with the domestic personal luxury goods market's year-on-year decline narrowing to 3%-5% [1][21] - The market recovery follows a "J-shaped" pattern, with sales expected to turn positive in Q4 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 1%-3% [1][21] - The recovery is driven by multiple factors, including a significant narrowing of the price gap between domestic and international luxury goods to around 12%, and the implementation of consumption-promoting policies [1][8] Group 2 - Consumer preferences are shifting from "material possession" to "experience first," with high-end service consumption, such as luxury hotels and health care, showing strong performance [1][31] - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a K-shaped differentiation, with beauty and personal care products growing by 4%-7%, while categories like leather goods and watches are declining by 8%-11% and 14%-17%, respectively [1][34] - The high-net-worth population is increasingly concentrated in eastern regions, with business owners now making up 54% of this demographic, becoming a core consumer force [2][9] Group 3 - The recovery in high-end consumption is attributed to a combination of factors, including consumer confidence restoration, policy support, and the adaptation of foreign brands to local market needs [1][8] - The average spending on luxury goods is expected to decrease slightly by about 4%, reflecting a more cautious consumer sentiment [28] - The high-end service sector, particularly in health and wellness, is projected to see increased spending, with intentions to spend on travel and health rising significantly among high-net-worth individuals [43][44]