欧盟免税红利彻底终结，9.9包邮时代结束了

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is set to abolish the long-standing exemption on customs duties for low-value packages under €150, introducing a fixed €3 tariff on all imported goods starting July 1, 2026, which will significantly impact Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers [2][4][5][7]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The EU will eliminate the €150 exemption for small packages, replacing it with a uniform €3 tariff from July 1, 2026, to July 1, 2028, after which all goods will be taxed according to normal customs regulations [2][4]. - This policy marks the end of a significant advantage for cross-border e-commerce, particularly affecting the business model based on low-cost direct shipping [5][6][7]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Sellers - In 2024, 4.6 billion low-value packages are expected to enter the EU, with 91% originating from China, raising concerns about the survival of small sellers reliant on low prices [8][18]. - The new regulations will cover 80% of cross-border e-commerce packages in the EU, leading to a potential industry reshuffle as sellers face increased costs and compliance burdens [19]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The EU's previous exemption policy has resulted in significant revenue losses, with estimates of €7.4 billion in VAT losses in 2023 alone due to the influx of low-value packages [13][14]. - The new policy is seen as a protective measure for local businesses, addressing unfair competition from low-cost imports that have pressured local retailers [14][15]. Group 4: Seller Strategies - Companies like Shein and Temu are adapting by shifting a portion of their orders to local warehouses and focusing on higher-value products to mitigate the impact of the new tariffs [21][22]. - The shift towards compliance and higher operational standards will likely favor larger companies with better resources, while smaller sellers may struggle to adapt [25][28]. Group 5: Future Trends - The tightening of customs duties on small packages is part of a broader global trend, with other countries like Japan and the UK also moving to eliminate similar exemptions [33][36]. - The industry is expected to transition from a focus on low prices to value-based competition, as the cost structure changes and compliance becomes more critical [35][37].