全球产业格局变在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is undergoing a systematic restructuring, driven by unilateralism and protectionism, particularly in emerging industries like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, necessitating a reevaluation of industrial layouts by many countries [1] Group 1: Changes in Spatial Layout - The shift from global integration to regionalization and "1+N" multi-point layout reflects the vulnerabilities of traditional global production networks amid geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions [4] - The share of China in U.S. imports decreased from 21.6% in 2017 to 13.4% in 2024, while Mexico's share increased from 12.3% to 14.4%, and Vietnam's from 2.1% to 4.3%, indicating a clear trend towards regionalization and nearshoring [4] Group 2: Structural Changes - The global industrial value creation is transitioning from traditional manufacturing to service-oriented and green industries, with high-value services becoming integral to the entire industrial value chain [5] - Exports of China's "new three items" (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products) surged from 284.4 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.28 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 3.5-fold increase over five years [5] Group 3: Technological Changes - The geographical pattern of technological innovation is shifting from a concentrated model to a decentralized one, resulting in a multi-polar innovation landscape [6] - The U.S. leads in AI infrastructure and high-end semiconductor manufacturing, while the EU excels in green technology and industrial software, and China has developed advantages in 5G communication and new energy batteries [6] Group 4: Organizational Changes - The role of state intervention in global industrial organization is intensifying, with national policies increasingly influencing multinational corporations' strategies [7] - The number of global regional trade agreements reached 378 by the end of 2024, up by 102 since 2010, with many focusing on key sectors like semiconductors and new energy, embedding values and standards into trade rules [7]