Mhy20260226油脂晚评：05合约Y-P价差进一步修复，逼近-500

Market Focus - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil yield from February 1-25, 2026, decreased by 16.78% month-on-month, while the extraction rate increased by 0.1%, and production fell by 16.25% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1-25 amounted to 922,649 tons, a decrease of 16.05% from 1,099,033 tons in the same period last month [1] - Shipping survey agency ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period were 1,022,673 tons, down 12.1% from 1,163,634 tons last month [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated a 12.29% decrease in palm oil production from February 1-20, with reductions of 10.74% in Peninsular Malaysia, 15.23% in Sabah, 11.20% in Sarawak, and 14.19% in Borneo [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) noted that despite challenges such as the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate and high Malaysian inventories, palm oil prices remained above 4,000 ringgit per ton throughout January, indicating a potential short-term structural bottom for current prices [1] Daily Oilseed Processing Data - In January 2026, Canada's canola processing volume was 1,053,420 tons, a decrease of 2.17% from the previous month but an increase of 4.24% year-on-year [2] OPEC+ Meeting Insights - OPEC+ representatives indicated that the organization is likely to agree on a slight production increase during the upcoming meeting to review April policies, with a potential increase of 137,000 barrels per day being considered for April [2] Market Review - The strong rise in U.S. soybeans, reaching a three-month high, provided significant support for soybean oil costs, while palm oil showed a weaker trend due to poor export data reflecting seasonal demand decline post-Ramadan [5] - As a result, the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil continued to adjust, with the main May contract spread approaching -500 yuan per ton at the close [5]