【美国通胀拐点已至！高盛：关税成本转嫁接近尾声，核心PCE通胀年底将回到目标水平！】高盛认为，关税对商品价格的传导效应已基本释放完毕，预计2026年底，关税对核心PCE通胀增量贡献将仅剩0.1个百分点。配合住房通胀放缓及劳动力市场降温，核心PCE有望在2026年底降至2.2%，并于2027...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs believes that the transmission effect of tariffs on commodity prices has largely been released, predicting that by the end of 2026, the contribution of tariffs to core PCE inflation will only be 0.1 percentage points [1] - With the slowdown in housing inflation and a cooling labor market, core PCE inflation is expected to decline to 2.2% by the end of 2026, and return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by 2027, creating space for policy shifts [1]