博时市场点评2月26日：指数小幅震荡，通信行业涨幅领先

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market showed mixed results, with trading volume slightly increasing compared to the previous day [6] - The communication sector led the gains among the Shenwan first-level industries, with a rise of 2.84% [6] Currency Impact - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate broke 6.84, while the onshore rate surpassed 6.87, both reaching new highs since April 2023 [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a decline in external USD credit and a weakening USD index, supported by the resilience of China's economic fundamentals [1] - The strong performance of the RMB enhances the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, potentially increasing foreign capital inflows and improving overall market risk appetite [1] Real Estate Policy Changes - Shanghai's new real estate policy, known as "沪七条," significantly relaxes purchase restrictions and housing fund policies, including reducing the social security requirement for non-local residents from 3 years to 1 year [2] - The maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers using housing funds has been raised from 1.6 million to 2.4 million RMB, with potential increases up to 3.24 million RMB [2] - This policy aims to lower the entry barriers for new residents and is expected to boost market sentiment, particularly in the real estate sector, which is crucial for stabilizing fixed asset investment and consumer confidence [2] Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia reported Q4 revenue of $68.127 billion, a 73% year-over-year increase, with net profit rising 94% to $42.96 billion [3][10] - The data center business generated $62 billion in revenue, accounting for 91% of total revenue, and grew 75% year-over-year [10] - CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the "Inference Equals Revenue" concept, indicating that AI capabilities are transitioning from training to inference, which clarifies the business model and addresses concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures [11] Lithium Supply Disruption - Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, which is expected to exacerbate the short-term supply tightness of lithium for China, as approximately 19% of China's lithium concentrate imports come from Zimbabwe [4][12] - This export ban is likely to increase procurement costs and uncertainty for domestic lithium salt manufacturers, reinforcing the price increase logic in the lithium sector [12]