2 月 26 日恒生科技指数大跌 2.87%，科技股普遍走低，怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong financial market is influenced by its role as a conduit for mainland China's dollar liquidity and as the largest offshore RMB trading center, reflecting structural changes in capital flows and monetary policy direction [1][3]. Market Performance - On February 26, 2026, the Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5109.33 points, down 2.87%, marking a cumulative decline of nearly 25% since 2025, indicating a "technical bear market" [1]. - The index's trading volume reached 67.352 billion HKD, hitting a recent low, which is seen as part of a long-term structural adjustment trend [1]. External Influences - Global liquidity tightening and the increasing attractiveness of dollar assets, alongside the "no employment economic prosperity" under AI impacts, are identified as core external factors driving the index's decline [1][3]. - The sensitivity of the Hang Seng Tech Index to U.S. Treasury yields is 1.8 times that of the Hang Seng Index, leading to more pronounced adjustments during liquidity tightening periods [3]. Capital Flows - Since February, foreign capital has net exited the tech sector through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, exceeding 5 billion HKD, exacerbated by a lack of domestic capital during the holiday period [3][5]. - The market is experiencing a negative feedback loop characterized by increased selling pressure and declining stock prices [3]. Fundamental Factors - The AI and chip sectors are entering a phase of commercial viability competition, with component stocks facing profit pressure and intensified industry competition [5][6]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Tech Index account for 69% of its value, with major players like Tencent and Alibaba directly influencing the index's performance [5]. Valuation and Earnings Expectations - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index is at a historical low (PE around 21.62), but earnings expectations for component stocks remain uncertain, with predictions of net profit growth between 15%-35% for 2026 [6]. - The intense competition in traditional internet sectors, such as short videos and live streaming, is contributing to significant stock price declines, with Kuaishou's stock down nearly 36% from its peak [6]. Market Sentiment - The market is shifting from "speculating on AI growth stories" to "focusing on earnings certainty," leading to continued capital outflows from traditional internet companies [9]. - As of February 26, 2026, the short-selling ratio of the index reached 21%, indicating a weak market structure dominated by foreign capital, with domestic investors largely absent [9]. Future Outlook - The current technical bear market does not equate to a systemic risk, as core component stocks have not shown signs of operational crises, and AI technology continues to evolve [10]. - The index is expected to find support in the 5000-5200 point range, with potential rebounds contingent on improvements in global liquidity, AI commercialization, competitive dynamics, and geopolitical clarity [12].