美联储“鹰声”再起：不宜进一步降息，很可能在一段时间内维持当前利率

Group 1 - Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged for some time due to recent improvements in the labor market and persistent inflation risks [1] - Collins noted that the labor market is showing "at least a bit more unusual signs of stability" and emphasized the need for more evidence that inflation is moving towards the 2% target [1] - After a cumulative easing of 175 basis points over the past year and a half, the current interest rate is considered to be in a mildly restrictive range, close to neutral levels [1] Group 2 - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated that the risks to the central bank's dual mandate are two-sided, reflecting concerns about both inflation and labor market stability [2] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed that further rate cuts are not appropriate until there is more evidence of inflation consistently declining towards the 2% target [3] - Goolsbee mentioned that the recent Supreme Court decision to cancel several global tariffs could introduce more uncertainty for businesses but may also help to curb inflation [3] Group 3 - Economists and market participants expect the Fed will not cut rates by 25 basis points again until at least June and anticipate only two rate cuts this year [4] - Goolsbee indicated that if price pressures ease, the Fed might consider multiple rate cuts in 2026 [4] - Goolsbee expressed confidence in the stability of the labor market and economic growth at present [4]