生存根基遭动摇，中国跨境电商转型在即，中小卖家面临三大挑战

Group 1 - The EU will eliminate the €150 tax exemption for small packages starting July 1, 2026, replacing it with a fixed €3 tariff, impacting the foundation of China's cross-border e-commerce "low-cost small package direct mail" model [2] - The reform is a response to the EU's desire to protect local industries and address significant tariff losses, with 91% of the 4.6 billion small packages entering the EU in 2024 coming from China, leading to billions in annual tariff losses [2] - The policy will be implemented in two phases: a transition period from July 2026 to June 2028 with a fixed tariff, followed by the complete removal of the tax exemption and the introduction of normal tax rates starting July 2028 [2] Group 2 - The impact of the €3 fixed tariff on sellers is significant, potentially increasing costs by 50% for low-margin products, leading to scenarios where small sellers may operate at a loss [3] - The transition to a value-added tax (VAT) system post-transition period is expected to raise overall costs by 5% to 10%, further diminishing the competitiveness of low-cost models [3] - Major platforms like SHEIN and Temu are adapting by shifting orders to local warehouses and changing their product offerings to mitigate the impact of the new tariffs [3] Group 3 - Short-term pain is expected, but the policy adjustments are anticipated to drive the standardization and development of the industry in the long run [4] - Small sellers need to transform their logistics from pure direct mail to light overseas warehousing, shift product focus from low-margin to high-value items, and enhance compliance capabilities to avoid market elimination [4] - The tightening of tariffs by the EU reflects a broader trend of regulatory changes in major consumer markets, with Japan and the UK also planning to eliminate tax exemptions for low-value goods [4]