两个月暴涨50%、跃居全球第九大股市，韩国股市还能疯狂多久？

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean stock market, driven by a surge in semiconductor demand due to artificial intelligence and domestic corporate governance reforms, has seen the KOSPI index rise nearly 50% this year, making it the strongest major market globally [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 25, the total market capitalization of the South Korean stock market reached $3.76 trillion, an increase of approximately $2.23 trillion since the beginning of the year, surpassing France's market capitalization of $3.69 trillion [1]. - On February 26, the KOSPI index rose by 3.67% to close at 6307.32 points, hitting an intraday high of 6313.27 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of about 46%, compared to a mere 4.5% rise in France's CAC 40 index during the same period [1]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - Goldman Sachs reported on February 14 that the MSCI Korea index, priced in USD, is leading the Asia-Pacific market. They raised the KOSPI's target price for the next 12 months to 6400 points, indicating that the strong performance of Korean stocks is not yet at its peak [4][6]. - The upward revision is based on the robust recovery of corporate earnings, primarily driven by the expansion of capital expenditures by global tech giants, leading to a tightening supply of memory chips [4][5]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The core driver of the recent surge in the South Korean stock market is the structural supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor industry. SK Hynix's stock has increased approximately sixfold since early 2025, while Samsung Electronics' stock has nearly quadrupled [5]. - The capital expenditure for U.S. cloud computing and hyperscale data centers is expected to reach $666 billion by 2026, significantly up from the initial estimate of $548 billion, while the supply of memory chips is not keeping pace with demand, creating record supply shortages for DRAM and NAND [5]. Group 4: Earnings Growth and Valuation - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 120% growth in earnings per share for the Korean stock market in 2026, significantly higher than the market consensus of 115%, following a 36% growth in 2025 [6]. - The technology hardware sector is expected to contribute the majority of this earnings growth, while other sectors like finance and automotive will also play a role [6]. - Despite the significant rise in the KOSPI, its forward P/E ratio for 2026 remains around 9 times, indicating a substantial discount compared to the MSCI global index and MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) index [8].