消费专题报告：估值低位下的结构演绎，聚焦“红利资产”与“情绪消费”-华金证券

Core Insights - The report highlights that while the overall consumption market is stabilizing, structural opportunities are emerging, suggesting a focus on "service consumption" and "dividend assets" as dual main lines for investment [1][8] - The report indicates that the retail sales growth rate in December 2025 declined due to the timing of the Spring Festival and a retreat in promotional activities, placing the consumption market in an L-shaped bottoming phase [1][8] Consumption Market Overview - Retail sales growth in December 2025 was impacted by the Spring Festival's late occurrence, resulting in a year-on-year increase of only 0.9% [1][14] - Service consumption showed resilience with a growth rate of +2.2%, outperforming physical goods which grew by only +0.7% [1][8] - The report notes a significant divergence in consumption patterns, with sectors like sports entertainment and cosmetics experiencing high growth driven by emotional value, while home appliances and construction materials remain sluggish [1][8] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector is benefiting from cost reductions, with the white liquor market stabilizing and regional liquor companies gaining from returning home for the holidays [2][24] - The retail sector is experiencing a bifurcation, with essential goods performing steadily while discretionary spending is weak, particularly in traditional retail formats [2][30] - The service sector's valuation has returned to historical averages, with service consumption accounting for 46.1% of total consumption, indicating long-term growth potential [2][34] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a "barbell" investment strategy, balancing defensive positions in undervalued sectors with growth opportunities in policy-driven and improving fundamentals [1][8] - The current valuation levels in core consumption sectors are at historical lows, providing a significant margin of safety and long-term value [1][8][27] Hainan Duty-Free Market Opportunity - The report emphasizes the new opportunities in the duty-free industry following the Hainan island's closure, with a 46.8% year-on-year increase in sales in the first month post-closure [2][46] - The domestic duty-free market is characterized by a few strong players, with China Duty Free Group holding a market share of 78.7% [2][50]