金荣中国：美伊局势持续引发关注,金价逐步陷入高位震荡

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on February 26, with an opening price of $5,194.83 per ounce, a high of $5,217.58, a low of $5,130.36, and a closing price of $5,185.81 [1]. Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 4,000 to 212,000 for the week ending February 21, which was below the expected 215,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.83 million, indicating a stable labor market [3]. - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expressed a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to avoid overheating the economy before inflation eases [3]. Gold Market Insights - The World Gold Council noted that as U.S. stock market valuations approach levels seen during the internet bubble, any failure to meet profit targets could undermine investor confidence, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe haven [4]. - The current disparity between confidence in economic prospects and uncertainty in economic policy is a key reason for gold's strong performance over the past year and into the current year [4]. - Despite concerns about gold being overbought, the strategic importance of gold remains high, as it has historically provided diversification and reduced losses during market stress [5]. Trade and Geopolitical Developments - U.S. Trade Representative Greer indicated that the 10% global tariff imposed by President Trump may increase to 15% for some countries, while tariffs on China are expected to remain unchanged to avoid escalating tensions [5]. - Discussions regarding Iran's nuclear program are ongoing, with U.S. officials planning to evaluate potential actions against Tehran, focusing on nuclear facilities and missile bases [6][8]. ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw an increase in holdings by 0.28 tons, bringing the total to 1,097.9 tons [8]. Interest Rate Projections - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 4%, with a 96% chance of maintaining current rates [9].