盾博：美债收益率维持高位，市场如何定价货币政策？

Group 1 - The US dollar index exhibited typical range-bound characteristics during trading on Thursday, showing weakness in the Asian and Pacific trading sessions but rebounding as the New York session began, approaching the key technical resistance level of 98 before facing selling pressure and ultimately closing around 97.66 with limited daily fluctuations [1] - In the US Treasury market, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.056%, while the more policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield remained at 3.475%. The shape of the yield curve indicates that market expectations for future interest rate paths are relatively stable, with a low probability of significant adjustments to policy rates in the short term [3] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at least until mid-year, based on a comprehensive assessment of US economic data, including a cooling labor market with a relatively low unemployment rate and a decline in inflation levels, although core inflation remains sticky, leading policymakers to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3] Group 2 - The volatility of the dollar index shows a negative correlation with the prices of risk assets, where a rise in market risk appetite tends to pressure the dollar, while an increase in risk aversion supports the dollar. This dynamic was particularly evident during Thursday's trading, where a pullback in US tech stocks partially supported the dollar's rebound [3] - Observations of major currency pairs indicate that the euro traded around 1.08 against the dollar, the pound remained above the 1.30 mark, and the dollar-yen exchange rate was around 154. The relative strength of these currency pairs reflects market pricing of economic outlooks and monetary policy differences among major economies [3] - Looking ahead, the direction of the dollar index will depend on multiple intertwined factors, including statements from Federal Reserve officials, actual performance of US economic data, and developments in global geopolitical situations. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming non-farm payroll data and manufacturing activity indicators, which will provide important clues for assessing economic momentum [4]