开源证券：首予优然牧业(09858)“增持”评级 肉奶价格共振在即

Core Viewpoint - Open Source Securities initiates coverage on Youran Dairy (09858) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's significant scale advantages and resilience during industry downturns, with steady revenue growth expected and cash EBITDA projected to continue increasing in H1 2025 [1] Industry Analysis - The cyclical fluctuations in the dairy industry are slowing down, with a turning point in milk prices anticipated. The current cycle has seen milk prices decline for four years, with a cumulative drop of 31% since September 2021. The dairy cow inventory is expected to decrease by 3.2% by September 2025, leading to a slowdown in milk production growth. As feed costs rise and milk prices remain low, losses for dairy farms are expected to deepen, potentially leading to further reductions in inventory and a decline in raw milk production [1][2] - On the demand side, dairy product output is showing marginal improvement, with the release of deep processing capacity and exploration of exports for bulk powder and live cattle, which may help narrow the supply-demand gap. Milk prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in 2026, benefiting upstream dairy companies [1] Company Analysis - Youran Dairy is the industry leader with a dairy cow inventory of 622,000 heads and a raw milk output of 3.75 million tons in 2024. The company has a strategic partnership with Yili Group to secure raw milk sales. Approximately 30% of the company's milk is specialty milk, which helps maintain a leading gross margin and smoothens price fluctuations [2] - The company’s subsidiary, Saikexing, is the largest dairy cow breeding enterprise in China, enhancing the efficiency of dairy farming. The feed business is also the largest in the industry, helping to control costs. In H1 2025, the average milk yield per cow is projected to reach 12.9 tons, with feed costs at 1.91 yuan/kg, both of which are competitive within the industry [2] - The company's earnings elasticity is significantly influenced by the prices of raw milk and beef cattle. A hypothetical 3.5% increase in industry milk prices could lead to an additional gross profit of 460 million yuan, while a 10% increase in beef cattle prices could reduce losses from culling by 110 million yuan [2]