人民币狂飙5600点！美元没跌，人民币却独自升值，谁在疯狂买入？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has strengthened significantly, reaching around 6.8 against the US dollar, with a cumulative increase of over 5600 basis points in the past 10 months, indicating a deliberate and sustained trend rather than a random fluctuation [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Strength and Market Dynamics - The RMB has steadily appreciated over the past 10 months without significant volatility, accumulating a total increase of 5600 basis points, driven by underlying market forces [3][5]. - The strengthening of the RMB is independent of the US dollar's performance, which has remained stable without signs of decline or significant upward movement [3][5]. - The recent surge in the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus reached nearly $100 billion in December 2025, marking a historical peak, with January 2026 maintaining a high surplus of around $90 billion [7][8]. Group 2: Foreign Capital Inflow - The substantial foreign exchange surplus indicates that foreign capital is actively converting large amounts of US dollars into RMB, contributing to the currency's appreciation [8][10]. - In January 2026, a record surplus of $26 billion in securities investment further highlights foreign investors' ambitions in the RMB market, showcasing a shift in capital flow towards A-shares [10][12]. - The influx of foreign capital into the A-share market reflects a significant change in investor behavior, moving from passive observation to active participation with substantial investments [12][14]. Group 3: Market Conditions in Shanghai vs. Hong Kong - In Shanghai, the slowdown in new stock issuance has created a scarcity of quality assets, leading to increased valuations in the technology sector due to heightened liquidity [14][16]. - Conversely, Hong Kong has experienced a dramatic increase in IPO fundraising, reaching ten times the amount from the previous year, indicating a revitalization of its financial engine but also leading to liquidity challenges [16][17]. - The current IPO landscape in Hong Kong reveals a significant transformation in its industrial structure, with a notable focus on technology and high-end manufacturing, moving away from traditional financial and real estate sectors [19][21]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment and Market Outlook - The rapid development of the AI industry provides long-term growth prospects, while some assets have returned to reasonable valuation levels after experiencing a bubble [21][23]. - The evolving market dynamics suggest that the fundamentals will play a crucial role in determining whether foreign capital remains committed or withdraws, emphasizing the importance of identifying quality assets amidst market fluctuations [23][25]. - The RMB's stability at the 6.8 level reinforces expectations that RMB assets will become more valuable, further attracting foreign investment and signaling a new market cycle [25][27].