国信证券：建议重视2026年服务消费元年 看好政策预期与基本面共振下的服务消费龙头

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a strong performance in the restaurant and beverage sector driven by service consumption policy expectations and the Spring Festival peak season, maintaining an "outperform" rating for the hotel and restaurant industry, and emphasizing the importance of 2026 as a year for service consumption [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Since January 2026, leading companies in the restaurant and beverage sector have shown strong performance, with notable stock price increases for brands like Jiumaojiu, Guoquan, Alibaba-W, Junting Hotel, and Guming [2] - Jiumaojiu's core brand, Taier, reported a continued narrowing of same-store sales decline to -3% for Q4 2025, while Guoquan anticipates a robust growth in core operating profit of approximately 450-470 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.8-51.2% [2] - The Spring Festival season has catalyzed strong revenue recovery for leading companies such as Yum China, Huazhu Group-S, Atour, Haidilao, and Guming [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, the restaurant sector saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in revenue, with revenue from above-designated size restaurants at 146.32 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.1% decline year-on-year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with service CPI increasing by 0.6%, indicating resilient growth [3] - For January 2026, the restaurant and beverage sector maintained resilient growth, with tea beverage leaders expected to see single-digit year-on-year growth in monthly GMV, while hot pot brands like Haidilao are projected to grow by over 5% during the Spring Festival [3] Group 3: Hotel Sector Insights - During the Spring Festival week of 2026, the hotel industry experienced a 30.7% year-on-year increase in Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), with occupancy rates up by 8.1% and Average Daily Rate (ADR) up by 13.5% [4] - The demand surge and consensus among leading groups to stabilize prices have contributed to strong performance in the hotel sector, particularly in lower-tier markets [4] - Notable brand expansions include Xiaocaiyuan surpassing 800 stores by the end of 2025 and Luckin Coffee reaching 10,000 stores nationwide [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Haidilao, Huazhu Group-S, Guming, Guoquan, Yum China, Atour, and others for investment, while also suggesting to monitor companies like Mixue Group, Xiaocaiyuan, and others for medium-term opportunities [4]