Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of AI replacement processes is reshaping the express delivery industry, which serves as a significant "reservoir" for flexible employment. The end-of-line rights protection policies are expected to stabilize and increase delivery fees, leading to a recovery in single-ticket prices and gradually releasing corporate profit elasticity. The industry is anticipated to experience high-quality development, concentrating profits and market shares among leading companies [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Recovery - The express delivery industry shows strong demand resilience, with companies accelerating their resumption of operations. From December 29, 2025, to February 22, 2026, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 28.642 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while the delivery volume was 29.369 billion pieces, up 6.8% year-on-year. The overall volume maintained a steady growth trend in January and February [1][2]. Group 2: End-of-Line Rights Protection Policies - The national postal work conference in 2026 emphasized "penetrating" regulation to address issues like "punishment upon complaint" and promote the implementation of new social security policies, effectively safeguarding the rights of delivery personnel. The new social security regulations are expected to convert previously unregulated hidden costs into a unified rigid cost for all players, while minimum delivery fee guidelines will create a rigid price transmission point [2]. Group 3: Investment Analysis - The express delivery industry is viewed positively, with recommendations for companies like YTO Express and ZTO Express, which are expected to enhance their competitive advantages. Attention is also drawn to Shentong Express for its performance elasticity. Jitu Express is noted for its accelerated growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, while SF Express is recognized for its management structure and business line adjustments, presenting potential bottom-fishing opportunities [3].
申万宏源:单票价格进入修复通道 看好快递量价表现