15个月首次！日本东京CPI跌破2%目标，但央行加息路径未受动摇

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo's inflation unexpectedly cooled, but analysts believe this slowdown will not hinder the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) path towards further tightening monetary policy [1][4] Group 1: Inflation Data - The consumer price index (CPI) in the Tokyo region, excluding fresh food, rose by 1.8% year-on-year in February, down from 2.0% in January, marking the first drop below the BOJ's 2% target since October 2024 [1] - The primary reason for this decline was the government's subsidy policy, which led to a 9.2% year-on-year drop in energy prices [2] - Core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, increased from 2.5% in January to 2.5% in February, indicating persistent underlying price pressures [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Retail sales in January grew by 1.8% year-on-year, demonstrating sustained consumer momentum [5] - Industrial output rose by 2.2% month-on-month in January, a significant rebound from a 0.1% decline in December, partly due to pre-holiday stocking [5] - Despite short-term improvements, there are concerns that factory activity may weaken in the coming months, which could diminish the rationale for further rate hikes [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists and market participants agree that the BOJ's normalization process is not significantly impacted by the recent inflation slowdown [4] - The probability of a rate hike in April is close to 60%, according to market pricing [1] - The BOJ has maintained a cautious yet proactive stance on rate hikes since raising the policy rate to 0.75% in December [4]