东方财富证券：把握券商“价值修复”与“成长兑现”的双重机遇

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions indicate that a new round of market rally is set to begin, supported by a combination of valuation, policy, and macroeconomic factors that exhibit greater endogenous stability [1][2] Valuation Insights - The brokerage sector is significantly undervalued in static terms and possesses upward potential in dynamic terms, with a configuration logic described as having "three layers of bottom protection" and dual recovery space for profits and valuations [1] - The historical context shows that brokerage market trends typically start from a "triple bottom resonance" leading to profit realization, with valuation bottoms corresponding to historical low PB levels, providing a price safety net and rebound elasticity [2] Policy Environment - Expectations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" capital market reforms are anticipated to intensify, shifting the focus from counter-cyclical support to pro-cyclical institutional construction, which is expected to systematically release institutional dividends [2] Macroeconomic Factors - Economic stabilization, marginal recovery in inflation, and strong expectations for monetary policy easing create a favorable environment for equity assets, supporting continued transaction recovery alongside the trend of "deposit migration" [2] Structural Issues - The mismatch of "high ROE - low PB" highlights structural contradictions within the industry, with the brokerage sector's annualized ROE reaching approximately 8.7% in Q1-Q3 2025, the best performance since 2022, while the sector's PB remains at 1.39, significantly below historical valuation levels [3] - Concerns regarding the current profit structure being overly reliant on market conditions and homogeneous competition are seen as temporary, with potential for business and institutional restructuring to reshape market perceptions of brokerage ROE's "value" [3]