情报界“打脸”特朗普：伊朗导弹并未威胁美国本土，动武理由存疑

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the discrepancies between President Trump's claims about Iran's missile capabilities and the assessments from U.S. intelligence agencies, indicating that Iran is not close to developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking the U.S. [2][3] Group 1: U.S. Intelligence Assessments - U.S. intelligence reports suggest that Iran may not achieve the capability to develop a military viable ICBM until 2035, contrary to Trump's assertion that they are close to having missiles that can reach the U.S. [2] - A non-classified assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency indicates that even with foreign technical assistance, Iran could take up to eight years to produce a usable ICBM [2][3]. Group 2: Political Context and Statements - In a recent State of the Union address, Trump emphasized the threat posed by Iran, citing its support for radical organizations and its missile and nuclear programs as significant dangers to the U.S. and the region [4]. - Secretary of State Rubio acknowledged Iran's missile program but did not echo Trump's urgency, stating that Iran is on a path that could eventually lead to the development of weapons capable of reaching the U.S. [4]. Group 3: Iran's Position - Iran's Foreign Minister denied any intention to develop long-range missiles, asserting that their missile program is strictly for defensive purposes and aimed at deterrence [5]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had ceased its nuclear weapons development program in 2003, although it continues to enrich uranium, which could potentially be weapon-grade [6]. Group 4: Military Capabilities - Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, capable of targeting Israel, U.S. bases in the region, and parts of Europe [6]. - Experts note that while Iran has developed space launch vehicles that can be adapted for ICBMs, significant technological advancements are still required to create a re-entry vehicle capable of delivering a nuclear warhead [6].