ETO Markets 外汇：纽元兑美元温和反弹，美联储降息预期存变数

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has shown a slight increase of 0.16%, approaching the 0.5990 level against the US dollar, indicating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish market forces [2][3] - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly declined to around 97.75, reflecting a phase of consolidation rather than a fundamental change in the dollar's trend, which remains closely tied to interest rate expectations [2] - Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates steady during the March and April policy meetings, with inflation levels still above the long-term target of 2%, leading to a cautious approach in policy adjustments [2] Group 2 - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) potential interest rate hikes, with the NZD's volatility remaining subdued [3] - RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr's recent comments suggest a moderate policy stance, indicating that economic growth can continue without triggering significant inflationary pressures, which has tempered hawkish expectations [3] - The NZD's performance is influenced by both US interest rate expectations and New Zealand's economic conditions, with the potential for technical corrections in non-USD currencies as the external interest rate path becomes clearer [3]