Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-27 07:49Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating by Caitong Securities, highlighting its strong competitive barriers as a leading player in the domestic OTA industry, with outbound and international business being key growth drivers for the medium to long term [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported net operating revenue of 15.4 billion yuan (YoY +21%), exceeding expectations by 3.6%; adjusted EBITDA was 3.4 billion yuan (YoY +15%), and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.5 billion yuan (YoY +15%), surpassing expectations by 7.7% [1] - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 71.7 billion yuan, 81.9 billion yuan, and 91.8 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 19.1 billion yuan, 21.9 billion yuan, and 24.8 billion yuan [1] Business Segment Performance - Q4 2025 accommodation booking revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan (YoY +21%), driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings; transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion yuan (YoY +12%), with significant growth in international flight bookings; vacation revenue was 1.1 billion yuan (YoY +21%), benefiting from international service expansion; and business travel management revenue was 800 million yuan (YoY +15%), primarily due to growth in corporate clients [2] - The international OTA platform saw a year-on-year booking volume increase of approximately 60%, with Trip.com becoming a core driver of international revenue, raising its revenue share to 18% in Q4 2025; the company's internationalization strategy continues to deepen, opening up space for long-term growth [2] AI Integration - The AI Agent is not merely a "replacement for transactions" but is reshaping traffic entry points and decision-making processes; the company views AI traffic entry as a new distribution channel, efficiently directing external AI traffic through deeper Agent-to-Agent transactions [3] - The company leverages self-developed vertical Agents, utilizing years of accumulated real booking data, preferences, and high-quality reviews to continuously enhance advantages in real-time pricing, secure payments, and 24/7 global service, thereby improving conversion efficiency and service premium capabilities in the long term [3]