美元黄昏，黄金归来——地缘新秩序下的A股三大主线

Core Viewpoint - The global capital market is undergoing a profound restructuring since 2022, with a historical decoupling of gold from the dollar system, driven by structural fractures in the "three pillars" of dollar credit: institutional credit, economic productivity, and military deterrence [1][4][5] Group 1: Decoupling of Gold and Dollar - The report indicates that the traditional pricing logic of gold, which was tightly bound to the dollar framework, has been disrupted, particularly during the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve from 2022 to 2024 [5][8] - The decoupling is attributed to the simultaneous structural collapse of the three pillars supporting sovereign credit currency systems, including the erosion of institutional credit, hollowing out of economic productivity, and weakening of military power [8][9] Group 2: Shift in Global Credit System - The dollar is increasingly viewed as a geopolitical weapon rather than a shared global liquidity public good, accelerating the reconstruction of the global credit system [4][8] - Gold is re-emerging as a "shadow anchor" in the global monetary system, highlighting its ultimate value scale function beyond sovereign attributes [4][9] Group 3: A-Share Market Implications - The traditional macro analysis framework based on "growth-profit-valuation" is becoming obsolete, necessitating a shift towards a new paradigm centered on "safety-resilience-control" as core variables for asset pricing [14][16] - Investors are advised to focus on three main strategic lines: resource-based hard assets, core technology autonomy, and industries related to national security [16][17] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The first strategic line emphasizes resource and hard currency assets, including traditional precious metals and critical mineral resources essential for AI and energy transition [16][17] - The second line focuses on core technology assets, particularly in AI, semiconductors, commercial aerospace, and frontier energy technologies [16][17] - The third line pertains to security assets, which are essential for national security and have stable demand due to their reliance on government and state-owned enterprises [16][17]