反转，吓崩华尔街的AI末日预言报告被证伪，纳斯达克道琼斯都白跌了

Core Viewpoint - Citrini Research's report titled "Global Intelligence Crisis 2028" predicts a potential economic crisis driven by AI advancements, suggesting a significant rise in unemployment and consumer spending collapse in the U.S. by 2028 [1][6]. Group 1: Report Summary - The report claims that the U.S. economy, primarily service-oriented, could see white-collar workers, who make up 50% of employment and contribute 75% of discretionary spending, replaced by AI, leading to a vicious cycle of job losses and reduced consumer spending [7][10]. - Citrini introduces the term "ghost GDP" to describe a scenario where corporate profits rise while individuals see a decline in income, resulting in decreased consumer spending and a slowdown in money circulation [12]. - By June 2028, the report forecasts an unemployment rate of 10.2%, with discontented jobless individuals initiating protests against tech companies like OpenAI and Anthropic [12][20]. Group 2: Criticism and Rebuttal - Economists and institutions, including Citadel Securities, have criticized the report, arguing that it contradicts economic principles and that AI is more likely to complement rather than replace labor [6][13]. - Citadel highlights that the demand for software engineers is increasing, with job vacancies up by 11% year-on-year, countering Citrini's assertion that such roles will be eliminated by AI [14][16]. - The report's assumption that AI will rapidly replace jobs is challenged by historical patterns of technology adoption, which typically follow an S-curve, indicating that while AI may advance quickly, its deployment will be constrained by physical and economic limits [17][18]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the report's release, the stock market experienced significant declines, with major indices like the Dow Jones dropping 800 points and software stocks suffering substantial losses [3][20]. - However, as the initial panic subsided, stocks began to recover, with companies like Microsoft and Oracle rebounding sharply, indicating that the market may have overreacted to the report [20][21]. - The founder of Citrini expressed surprise at the report's impact on the stock market, suggesting that if he had known it would influence stock prices, he would not have released it for free [21].