Mhy20260227油脂晚评：马棕油受2月产量连降预期支撑

Market Focus - The Trump administration has finalized a plan requiring large refineries to compensate for at least half of their biofuel blending obligations that were exempted under the "Small Refinery Exemption Program," which is seen as negative news for large refiners concerned about increased costs, but it may support the demand for biofuels derived from soybeans and corn [1] - According to the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA), Malaysia's palm oil yield from February 1-25, 2026, decreased by 16.78% month-on-month, while the extraction rate increased by 0.1%, resulting in a total production drop of 16.25% compared to the same period last month [1] - Malaysian palm oil exports from February 1-25, 2026, were reported at 922,649 tons, a decrease of 16.05% from 1,099,033 tons in the same period last month, with different shipping agencies reporting varying export figures [1] Production Estimates - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimates that palm oil production from February 1-20, 2026, will decrease by 12.29%, with specific reductions of 10.74% in Peninsular Malaysia, 15.23% in Sabah, 11.20% in Sarawak, and 14.19% in Borneo [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) noted that despite challenges such as the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate and high Malaysian inventories, palm oil prices remained above 4,000 ringgit per ton throughout January, indicating a potential short-term structural bottom in prices [2] Export Data - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that for the week ending February 22, 2026, exports totaled 243,600 tons, down from 257,100 tons the previous week, with cumulative exports for the current marketing year (August 1, 2025, to February 22, 2026) at 4,268,700 tons, a significant decrease of 29.1% compared to 6,020,800 tons in the same period last year [2] Market Outlook - Due to seasonal low production, fewer days in February, and logistical constraints during the Spring Festival, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to continue declining month-on-month in February, marking the fourth consecutive month of reduced output [5] - Market attention is currently focused on the official supply and demand report set to be released on March 10, with preliminary estimates for February's supply and demand data expected to emerge starting March 2 [5]