两会前瞻｜宏观经济如何定调？机构热议年内工作“重头戏”

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) in 2026 is significant as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption as primary tasks for the government this year [1][10]. Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to be set between 4.5% and 5%, allowing for more flexibility in reforms [2][4]. - A cautious approach is reflected in the economic growth targets set by local governments, with 17 out of 31 provinces lowering their targets, leading to an average GDP growth target of 5%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [4][11]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target is expected to remain around 2%, consistent with previous years [5]. - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are anticipated for this year, with a potential fiscal deficit rate around 4% [6][8]. Focus on Domestic Demand and Consumption - The government’s primary task is to expand domestic demand, shifting the focus from subsidy-driven consumption to a combination of subsidies and income increases [10][12]. - Local governments are prioritizing economic stability and domestic demand, with many regions aligning their goals with the central government's economic work conference [11]. Technological Innovation and Industry Development - Promoting technological innovation and developing artificial intelligence are expected to be major focuses of government work this year, with various regions outlining specific projects in green energy, robotics, and new technologies [13]. - The modernization of the industrial system is seen as a foundation for China's modernization, with an emphasis on supporting technological innovation and optimizing traditional industries [13]. Real Estate and Carbon Neutrality - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and focusing on the operation of existing properties [15][17]. - The "dual carbon" goals are a significant focus, with challenges in reducing carbon emissions highlighted, as the current trajectory may not meet the ambitious targets set for 2030 [14][18].