宏观经济如何定调？机构热议年内工作“重头戏”

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) in 2026 is significant as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption as primary tasks for the government this year [1][6]. Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to be set between 4.5% and 5%, allowing for more flexibility in reforms [2][3]. - A cautious approach is reflected in the weighted average GDP growth target set by 31 provinces, which is 5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Inflation Expectations - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target remains consistent at around 2% [4]. Macroeconomic Policies - The macroeconomic policy is expected to continue with a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with a deficit rate potentially maintained at around 4% [5]. - There is room for interest rate cuts depending on economic growth and inflation trends, with a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations [5]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are identified as the government's primary tasks, with a shift in focus from subsidy-driven consumption to a combination of subsidies and income increases [6]. - More than half of the regions have prioritized stabilizing economic growth and expanding domestic demand in their annual work tasks [6]. Technological Innovation - Promoting technological innovation and developing artificial intelligence are expected to be major focuses of government work this year, with various regions outlining specific projects in green energy, robotics, and new technologies [7]. Real Estate and Carbon Neutrality - The real estate sector is transitioning to a focus on existing stock, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [8]. - The "dual carbon" goals are becoming increasingly challenging, with a need for significant reductions in carbon emissions to meet future targets [9].