美国让特朗普骑虎难下，白宫的口风突变，让中国有了更强议价能力

Core Viewpoint - A landmark ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court has disrupted the White House's policy plans and altered the power dynamics in U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly affecting the use of tariffs as a pressure tool [1][5]. Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling - On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the government's imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese goods under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded the legislative authority granted by Congress, rendering them illegal [5][6]. - This ruling effectively freezes the Trump administration's tariff policy, which allowed for immediate imposition without congressional approval, significantly limiting the White House's policy flexibility [6][8]. Group 2: Changes in Tariff Implementation - Following the ruling, the excessive tariffs on Chinese goods will be terminated, and the tax rate for Chinese exports to the U.S. will gradually align with the global most-favored-nation rate of 15%, consistent with major trading partners like the EU and Japan [8][10]. - Trump announced a new round of additional tariffs on global imports, starting at 10% and potentially increasing to 15%, but the implementation process has become more constrained, requiring public commentary and risk assessments, thus extending the decision-making timeline to 8-12 weeks [10][12]. Group 3: Impact on U.S.-China Negotiations - The Supreme Court's decision has enhanced China's institutional standing and bargaining power in U.S.-China economic dialogues, as the legitimacy of tariffs as a negotiation tool has been undermined [14][16]. - With the loss of tariff leverage, China is expected to propose more constructive positions on issues such as semiconductor cooperation and the lifting of sanctions on Chinese high-tech companies during future negotiations [18][20]. Group 4: Domestic Political and Economic Pressures - The ruling has sparked a political response within the U.S., with several state governors demanding the return of over $28 billion in tariffs deemed illegally collected, reflecting the intertwining pressures of federal and state politics [23]. - The upcoming midterm elections are intensifying the competition for economic policy discourse, with tariffs becoming a focal point for state-level political support [23]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the ruling, Chinese A-shares are expected to benefit from improved market sentiment, supported by positive domestic consumption data [23]. - Both the U.S. and China appear inclined to maintain existing economic cooperation frameworks, signaling a potential shift towards a more stable bilateral relationship, despite ongoing pressures from the Trump administration [23].