UBS(US:UBS) 智通财经网·2026-02-27 15:57Group 1 - UBS has downgraded the investment rating for the US stock market from "overweight" to "benchmark allocation" due to rising risks of a weaker dollar, high valuations, and increased policy uncertainty in Washington [1] - The firm expects the euro to rise to 1.22 USD by the end of Q1 next year, indicating structural downside risks for the USD [1] - Historical data shows that when the trade-weighted dollar index falls by 10%, US stocks typically lag by about 4 percentage points in unhedged terms [1] Group 2 - Corporate buybacks, a long-term support for US stocks, are weakening, with the buyback yield of US stocks now roughly equivalent to global peers, lacking a clear advantage [2] - The combined shareholder return rate of US stocks, including dividends and buybacks, is about half that of Europe [2] - Adjusted for industry, US stocks' price-to-earnings ratio is 35% higher than international markets, significantly above the average premium of 4% since 2010 [2] Group 3 - Policy uncertainties in the US include tariff policies, credit card interest rate cap proposals, housing investment restrictions, drug pricing reviews, and discussions on regulations affecting military contractors' dividends and buybacks [2] - Despite the downgrade, UBS does not adopt a fully bearish stance, noting that in early stages of potential bubbles, the US economy and stock market often perform better [2] - UBS expects the advancement of artificial intelligence applications in the US to remain ahead of most regions, supporting corporate profit growth [2] - UBS strategist Sean Simonds projects a year-end target of 7,500 points for the S&P 500, slightly below the average expectation of 7,629 points from mainstream strategists [2]