GSMA预计6G网络2030年开始部署 全球需提前规划频谱

Core Insights - The GSMA predicts that global 6G deployment will begin in 2030, with initial commercial use in countries including China, Japan, South Korea, the USA, Europe, and the GCC, leading to over 5 billion global 6G connections by 2040, accounting for approximately 54% of total mobile connections [1] - Monthly global mobile data traffic is expected to surge to between 1,700 EB and 4,000 EB, with average monthly traffic per connection reaching between 140 GB and 360 GB [1] Spectrum Demand - The report highlights a critical need for additional mid-band spectrum resources, estimating that countries will require an average of 2 GHz to 3 GHz of new mid-band spectrum between 2035 and 2040, with densely populated markets like China facing a shortfall of 2.5 GHz to 4 GHz [2] - GSMA's Chief Regulatory Officer emphasized that the spectrum pressure in the 6G era will be three times greater than current demands, necessitating immediate action from governments to avoid severe network congestion risks by 2030 [2] Frequency Planning - The upcoming World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-27) in November is seen as a crucial milestone for 6G spectrum planning, with GSMA urging the industry to coordinate the deployment of key frequency bands to establish a clear spectrum allocation roadmap [3] China's 6G Development - China leads in 6G patent applications, holding approximately 40.3% of the global total, positioning itself favorably in future 6G standard-setting [4] - The country has completed the first phase of 6G technology trials and has initiated the second phase, focusing on typical application scenarios such as immersive communication and AI-assisted wireless communication [4] - By 2040, the Greater China region is projected to have 1.6 billion 6G connections, with a market penetration rate exceeding 60% by 2035, and mobile data traffic expected to range from 555 EB to 1,345 EB per month [4] Strategic Implications - Countries that achieve breakthroughs in mid-band spectrum release and sharing rules will gain early advantages in the 6G era, with China expected to leverage its strategic planning in new infrastructure and domestic chip production to enhance its 6G development [5] - The combination of spectrum resource allocation and core technology development positions China to lead global 6G advancements and drive high-quality digital economic growth over the next decade [5]