Progressive (PGR) Up 1.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - Progressive Corporation has shown positive performance in its stock price, with a 1.7% increase since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500 [1][2]. Earnings Performance - In Q4 2025, Progressive reported earnings per share of $4.67, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.2%, and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.4% [3]. - Operating revenues for the quarter rose 10.6% year over year to $22.49 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate by 2.5% [3]. Premiums and Investment Gains - Net premiums written reached $19.5 billion, an 8% increase from $18.1 billion a year ago, while net premiums earned grew 10% to $21 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.9 billion [4]. - The company reported a net realized gain on securities of $257 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $53 million in the same quarter last year [4]. Full-Year Financial Highlights - For the full year, operating revenues increased by 15.7% to $86.9 billion, driven by a 15.3% rise in net premiums earned and a 26.5% increase in net investment income [5]. - Total expenses rose 13.5% to $73.4 billion, influenced by higher losses, policy acquisition costs, and other underwriting expenses [6]. Policies in Force - The number of policies in force in the Personal Lines segment increased by 11% year over year to 37.4 million, with notable growth in Direct Auto and Agency Auto segments [7]. Financial Metrics - As of December 30, 2025, Progressive's book value per share was $51.74, an 18.4% increase from $43.67 a year earlier, and the return on equity improved to 40.1% from 36.4% [8]. Estimate Trends - Following the earnings release, there has been an upward trend in consensus estimates, with a shift of 6.21% noted [9]. VGM Scores - Progressive holds a Growth Score of A, a Momentum Score of D, and a Value Score of B, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of A, indicating strong overall performance [10]. Outlook - Estimates for Progressive have been trending upward, and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [11]. Industry Performance - Progressive operates within the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, where RLI Corp. has seen a 6.3% gain over the past month, reporting revenues of $448.73 million for the last quarter [12].