瑞银下调美股评级，警告来自美元、估值与特朗普政策的三重压制

Group 1 - UBS has downgraded the rating of US stocks to neutral, indicating a shift in confidence among major Wall Street institutions regarding the long-term excess returns of the US stock market [1] - The report highlights that the drawdown of the US market relative to the global market is at its highest in nearly 15 years, despite factors like the rise of AI and unexpected economic growth [1] - UBS believes the risk of US stocks underperforming the global market now outweighs the potential for outperformance, with 45% of recent fund flows directed towards markets outside the US [1][2] Group 2 - A weakening dollar is a core concern for UBS, predicting that the euro will rise to 1.22 against the dollar by the end of Q1, and highlighting structural downside risks for the dollar [2] - The depreciation of the dollar has had a diminished impact on US corporate earnings, which further weakens the growth logic that previously supported US stock valuations [2] - In contrast, overseas markets have performed strongly, with the MSCI global index (excluding the US) up approximately 8% this year, while the S&P 500 has remained nearly flat [2] Group 3 - The attractiveness of corporate buybacks, a significant pillar for US stocks, is diminishing, with buyback yields now only on par with global peers and even lower than the UK market [3] - UBS notes that the price-to-earnings ratio of US stocks is approximately 35% higher than that of international peers, while historical averages suggest a premium of only around 4% [3] - The combined shareholder return rate from dividends and buybacks for US stocks is currently about half that of Europe, further reducing their relative appeal [3] Group 4 - Increased policy uncertainty under the Trump administration is another factor exerting pressure on the market, with various policy disruptions noted throughout the year [4] - Despite the negative outlook, UBS has not turned fully bearish, suggesting that the US economy and stock market can still benefit in the early stages of a potential bubble [5] - UBS forecasts that the S&P 500 index will reach a year-end target of 7500 points, which is below the average target of 7629 points from 14 top strategists [5]