玖龙纸业(02689.HK)：浆纸一体红利释放 资本开支即将收尾

Performance Review - The company reported a net profit of 2.21 billion yuan for 1HFY26, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97 billion yuan after deducting perpetual bond interest, representing a year-on-year increase of 319%, in line with previous forecasts [1] Development Trends - The improvement in net profit per ton is primarily attributed to the increase in self-produced pulp. The company sold approximately 12.4 million tons during the period, a year-on-year increase of 1 million tons, mainly driven by an increase of 500,000 tons in white cardboard and 300,000 tons in cultural paper. The net profit per ton of paper was approximately 160 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120 yuan, with the growth mainly coming from the ramp-up in self-produced pulp [1] Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - The company has adjusted its capital expenditure slightly upward, with no new paper production capacity planned, leaving four pulp lines with a total capacity of 2.5 million tons. The company plans to complete the remaining capital expenditure of 10 billion yuan by 27Q3, with an upward adjustment of FY26 capital expenditure to 12.5 billion yuan from the previous guidance of 11 billion yuan. As of 1HFY26, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 64.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1 percentage point, marking the first decline in five years [2] Market Outlook - The black paper segment, particularly corrugated cardboard, is showing stable recovery, with estimated net profit per ton around 100 yuan. Looking ahead, the industry supply is expected to stabilize by 2026, with steady demand growth. The company, as the largest player in the corrugated cardboard market with a market share of approximately 25%, is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery in the sector [2] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to exceed profit expectations due to an increase in self-produced pulp output, with an estimated pulp production of over 2 million tons in 1HFY26. The average net profit per ton for white paper is projected to be above 300 yuan. The net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been raised by 10% and 12% to 4 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/B ratios of 0.7x and 0.6x. The target price has been increased by 33% to 12 HKD, implying a 31% upside potential [3]