【国信银行】美国家庭债务报告（2025Q4）点评：局部压力凸显，整体稳健

Core Viewpoint - The total household debt in the U.S. reached $18.78 trillion by the end of 2025, with a delinquency rate of 4.81% [1][2] Group 1: Debt Composition - The mortgage balance at the end of 2025 was $13.17 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, accounting for 70.1% of total household debt [2][3] - Credit card balances reached $1.28 trillion by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, representing 6.8% of total debt [2][4] - Auto loan balances stood at $1.67 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping to 0.7%, the lowest since 2010, making up 8.9% of total debt [2][4] Group 2: Delinquency Rates - The overall delinquency rate for household debt was 4.81% at the end of 2025, with a 90+ days delinquency rate of 3.13%, both showing significant increases from the beginning of the year [2][9] - The 90+ days delinquency rate for credit cards was 12.70%, and for auto loans, it was 5.21%, both at their highest levels since 2012 [10][9] - The mortgage 90+ days delinquency rate was 0.92%, which, while still low, showed an upward trend in the fourth quarter [10][15] Group 3: Economic Implications - The current leverage ratio of U.S. households is at its lowest level since 2000, indicating a healthy cash flow and balance sheet despite rising delinquency rates in certain segments [3][35] - The disparity in mortgage and credit card trends reflects a "K-shaped" economic recovery, with low-income groups facing significant repayment pressures [35][36] - The high delinquency rates in credit cards are primarily affecting low-income individuals, while higher-income groups maintain low delinquency rates [18][36] Group 4: Future Outlook - Credit card delinquency rates are expected to continue rising without a clear turning point, while auto loan delinquency rates may stabilize after a slight increase [24][30] - The mortgage delinquency rate may see a slight increase but is expected to remain manageable due to the high credit quality of borrowers [15][21]