锐财经丨地方财政运行总体平稳

Core Insights - The overall fiscal performance of local governments in China for 2025 is stable, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting an increase in fiscal revenue compared to 2024, indicating a positive trend in local fiscal health [1][2]. Revenue Performance - In 2025, the total local fiscal revenue reached 12.21 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase from 2024, with significant contributions from major provinces like Guangdong, which reported 1.39 trillion yuan, a 3% year-on-year growth [1]. - The growth in domestic value-added tax was 3.4%, while corporate income tax saw a 1% increase, driven by the manufacturing sector [2]. Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 28.74 trillion yuan, a 1% increase from 2024, with local general public budget expenditure at 24.44 trillion yuan, growing by 0.2% [2]. - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (up 6.7%), education (up 3.2%), and health (up 5.7%), reflecting a focus on improving public welfare [2]. Future Projections - Most provinces have set their 2026 fiscal revenue growth targets in line with 2025, with some regions like Xinjiang and Tibet projecting higher growth rates of 10% and 8%, respectively [3]. - 18 provinces maintained their revenue growth targets, while 9 provinces adjusted their expectations downward, indicating a cautious outlook based on regional economic conditions [3]. Challenges and Considerations - Some provinces, such as Gansu and Jiangsu, highlighted challenges in maintaining stable revenue growth due to factors like a sluggish real estate market and declining land transfer income [4]. - The analysis of fiscal reports indicates that external uncertainties, particularly in trade and commodity prices, could impact future revenue streams [4]. Policy Focus - The emphasis on "investing in people" is evident in the fiscal policies, with significant allocations for social security, education, and healthcare [5]. - Initiatives include employment support programs in Guizhou and enhanced social welfare measures in Guangdong, reflecting a commitment to bolster public services [5]. Fiscal Strategy - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that the fiscal deficit and debt levels will be maintained at necessary levels to ensure continued support for key sectors and consumer spending [6].