沃什提名罕见卡关、鲍威尔留任悬而未决，美联储货币政策前景再添巨大不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chairman adds uncertainty to an already politically charged situation, raising concerns about the Fed's independence in setting monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Nomination Process - President Trump announced Warsh as his nominee for the Fed Chair four weeks ago, but the nomination has not progressed, which is unusual since only two similar cases have occurred since 2010 [4]. - Senator Thom Tillis has pledged to block any Fed nominations until the Justice Department's investigation into Powell regarding the Washington Fed building renovation is resolved [4][5]. - The White House is reportedly working with the Senate to expedite Warsh's confirmation, asserting that he is qualified to restore the Fed's decision-making capability [5]. Group 2: Investigation and Political Pressure - Powell disclosed a Justice Department investigation in January, describing it as part of the Trump administration's ongoing pressure to force the Fed to lower interest rates [6]. - Reports indicate that the Fed has requested a judge to dismiss subpoenas issued in the investigation, but the Fed has not commented on this [6]. Group 3: Timing and Implications - With only 11 weeks remaining until Powell's term ends on May 15, the timeline for confirmation is tighter than usual for Fed nominees [7]. - If Warsh's confirmation process is prolonged, it could create a "hanging" situation for both the nominee and the Fed as the June 16-17 meeting approaches, which may be the earliest opportunity to discuss interest rate cuts [7]. Group 4: Leadership Dynamics - The expected transition from current Fed Governor Stephen Miran to Warsh would replace one supporter of rate cuts with another, potentially allowing Trump appointees to gain a majority on the seven-member Fed Board [8]. - If Powell chooses to remain on the Board after his term ends, it would be an unusual move, indicating ongoing concerns about the Fed's independence amid unprecedented political pressure [9]. - Even if Powell stays, it is likely that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will follow established practices, with Warsh leading the committee, which may complicate his efforts to advocate for rate cuts [10].