复旦碳价指数：2026年3月CEA与CCER价格指数走势分化

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for March 2026, including the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price index, the national CCER price index, and the Chinese Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buy price for the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in March 2026 is 74.73 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 82.83 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 72.78 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 3.12%, while the sell price index decreased by 1.03%, and the midpoint price index fell by 6.80% [2][3] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 84.47 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 94.25 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 89.36 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 158.04, and the sell price index is 161.77, with a midpoint price index of 159.99 [2][3] - The expected buy price for the national certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) in March 2026 is 76.40 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 84.80 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 80.60 CNY/ton. The buy price index rose by 6.41%, the sell price index increased by 1.19%, and the midpoint price index grew by 3.60% [2][3] GEC Price Indices - The expected prices for the three types of domestic green certificates (GEC) for 2025 production are as follows: centralized project price is 7.32 CNY/certificate (index 133.09), distributed project price is 7.15 CNY/certificate (index 145.07), and biomass power generation price is 6.85 CNY/certificate (index 132.75) [4][5] - The price trends for the three types of green certificates show divergence, with the distributed project certificates continuing to rise by 1.4%, while centralized and biomass project certificates experienced a decline [4] Carbon Market Overview - In February, the national carbon market exhibited a stable price with reduced trading volume. The average closing price for CEA was 79.57 CNY/ton, up approximately 2.33% from January's average of 77.76 CNY/ton. The market showed high-level fluctuations, with prices ranging between 76 and 81 CNY/ton [6] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in February was 24.57 million tons, a significant decrease of about 55% compared to January's 54.68 million tons. Despite the overall reduction in trading volume, there were days with higher trading volumes, indicating ongoing adjustments by companies [6] Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market in February showed a general decline in trading volumes, with the EU carbon market experiencing a 37.15% increase in daily trading volume, while the UK and Korea markets saw declines of 25.74% and 3.65%, respectively [7] - Price trends varied across carbon markets, with the EU market's price dropping from 96.66 USD/ton to 82.25 USD/ton (a cumulative decrease of 14.91%), while the Korean market saw an increase from 8.47 USD/ton to 8.89 USD/ton (a cumulative increase of 4.98%) [8]