7.4到6.84，人民币升值"核爆"！国内通胀、资产价格要全面起飞？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have both surpassed the 6.84 mark, marking a significant appreciation from a low of 7.4, described as a "nuclear explosion" level of increase [1][3]. Exchange Rate Movement - Since February 20, the RMB has experienced five consecutive days of appreciation, with the offshore RMB rising over 600 basis points, nearly 1% [3]. - By February 26, the offshore RMB had appreciated nearly 1400 basis points, reaching a 2% increase, breaking through key levels of 6.9 and 6.85 [5]. - On February 26, the RMB's midpoint against the dollar was reported at 6.9228, an increase of 93 basis points from the previous day, marking a new high since mid-May 2023 [5]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The stabilization of Sino-US economic relations since November 2025 has been a crucial factor, enhancing market confidence in the RMB [12]. - The depreciation of the US dollar, influenced by a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman, has also contributed to the RMB's strength [12]. - Positive domestic economic signals, such as a rebound in PPI and a bullish stock market, have attracted global capital towards RMB assets, further supporting the currency's appreciation [14]. - The release of pent-up demand for foreign exchange, driven by high export growth, has accelerated the RMB's rise [14]. Impact on Inflation - Concerns about domestic inflation rising due to RMB appreciation are somewhat valid, but the actual impact is expected to be mild, leading to input-driven deflation rather than inflation [18]. - A 10% nominal trade-weighted appreciation of the RMB could lower CPI inflation by approximately 0.1 percentage points and PPI inflation by about 1 percentage point [20]. - The current PPI is still in a deflationary zone, and the deflationary pressure from RMB appreciation highlights the importance of boosting domestic demand [22]. Asset Price Effects - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to have a more pronounced impact on domestic asset prices, but it will not lead to a "full-scale surge" across all asset types [24]. - Industries with high import dependency, such as petrochemicals and industrial metals, will benefit from reduced import costs, enhancing profitability and asset values [26]. - Sectors with dollar-denominated debt, like aviation and real estate, will see improved financial conditions due to the RMB's strength [28]. - Core RMB assets, including banks and insurance, are likely to attract more global capital, driving steady price increases [30]. - However, not all assets will benefit; real estate in lower-tier cities may continue to struggle due to demographic and economic factors [32]. Future Outlook - The RMB's significant appreciation from 7.4 to 6.84 will bring changes to the domestic economy and capital markets, but these changes are not expected to be revolutionary [34]. - The appreciation trend may continue for a while but is unlikely to be a one-sided increase, with potential for increased volatility as the exchange rate approaches a reasonable range [36]. - The strengthening of the RMB reflects the improvement of domestic economic strength and market confidence in the Chinese economy, which is beneficial for long-term economic development and asset security for individuals [38].