Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – Feb 27

Geopolitical Risks - The potential escalation of conflict with Iran introduces significant geopolitical risk premiums into global markets, particularly following the reported killing of Iran's supreme leader [1] - Continued tensions with Iran could lead to oil price volatility and increased safe-haven flows into Treasuries and gold, impacting high-beta equity segments [5] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. equities are showing signs of internal deterioration, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% for the week and the Nasdaq Composite now negative year-to-date [2][8] - The S&P 500 ETF is up only 0.6% year-to-date, while the equal-weight S&P is up 7%, indicating a divergence in performance among sectors [4] Sector Analysis - Energy and materials sectors are leading, with Energy (XLE) up 25% year-to-date, while technology (XLK) and financials (XLF) are lagging, down 4% and 6% respectively [4][8] - The so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have seen significant declines, with Microsoft down 19% and Amazon and Tesla down approximately 10% [4] Bond Market Insights - The global bond market has rallied, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields falling below 4% for the first time since November, indicating caution among investors [3][8] - Credit spreads have widened slightly, which typically does not signal optimism in the market [3] International Market Performance - U.S. markets are underperforming compared to international markets, with South Korea up nearly 50% year-to-date and Taiwan up 23% [4][8] - European markets are also showing resilience, with modest gains driven by earnings [4] Economic Data and Fed Outlook - A heavy data flow is expected this week, with key indicators such as ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment, and Nonfarm Payrolls being closely monitored to assess economic resilience [10][15] - The latest PPI print complicates the narrative for near-term rate cuts, as sticky producer prices do not support an aggressive pivot by the Fed [11]