Mideast oil output may need to stop if Hormuz closed for 25 days

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicate that if the Strait of Hormuz were to shut completely due to regional conflict, oil producers in the Middle East could sustain output for "no more than 25 days" before storage constraints necessitate mandatory production shut-ins [6]. Group 1: Strait of Hormuz and Oil Exports - Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stalled due to a self-imposed pause by shipowners, with export flows on February 28 dropping to around 4 million barrels of almost entirely Iranian crude, compared to a typical daily rate of around 16 million barrels [6][4]. - Approximately 19 million barrels a day of liquid fuel exports, including 16 million barrels a day of crude, transit the Strait of Hormuz [4]. Group 2: Storage Capacity and Production - JPMorgan estimates that the seven Gulf producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Iran, have roughly 343 million barrels of available onshore crude storage capacity, which is equivalent to 22 days of stranded production that could be stored [5]. - Additional storage options at sea include around 60 empty tankers in the Gulf region that could absorb about 50 million barrels, potentially extending operations by another three to four days [5].