Kaspi.kz 4Q & FY 2025 Financial Results

Core Insights - Kaspi.kz aims to build a user base of 100 million, with strategic decisions focused on product launches, investments in Türkiye, and dividend policies [3][4]. Financial Performance - For FY 2025, revenue and net income increased by 19% and 10% YoY, respectively, with underlying revenue and net income rising by 21% and 18% [20]. - In 4Q 2025, revenue grew by 15% YoY, while net income saw a modest increase of 1% YoY; underlying revenue and net income increased by 18% and 13% [20]. - Engagement metrics remained strong, with 77 monthly transactions per active consumer [20]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to pay a quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, which is expected to be sustainable for the remainder of 2026, subject to shareholder approval [5][20]. E-commerce Growth in Türkiye - Hepsiburada's consumer engagement metrics improved significantly, with monthly active consumers increasing by 15% YoY and engaged consumers growing by 29% YoY in 4Q 2025 [7][20]. - The company is focusing on enhancing order growth through better personalization, faster delivery, and improved marketing efficiency [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Kaspi.kz plans to invest approximately $300 million upon closing the acquisition of Rabobank A. Ş., which is expected to enhance e-commerce and fintech synergies [9]. - The company anticipates that e-commerce will be the main driver of future growth in both Kazakhstan and Türkiye, supported by fintech products and higher-margin services [17]. Market Dynamics - In Kazakhstan, e-commerce purchases per consumer reached 24.8 in 2025, while Hepsiburada's figure was around 6.7, indicating significant growth potential [12]. - The company expects to narrow the engagement gap in Türkiye over time, leveraging its experience and defined strategies [13]. Regulatory Environment - The corporate tax rate for banks in Kazakhstan increased to 25% from 20%, which is expected to raise the consolidated tax rate for Kaspi.kz by around 200 basis points YoY in 2026 [14]. - The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised minimum reserve requirements, which may impact interest revenue generation [15]. Future Outlook - The company expects consolidated Adjusted EBITDA growth of around 5% YoY for 2026, with guidance now including Türkiye for the first time [21].