Tesla Sales Rebound In Key European Markets, But Why Are Prediction Markets Still Bearish? - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Core Insights - Tesla Inc has ended a 13-month losing streak in Europe, showing significant registration gains in key markets such as France, Spain, and Norway [1][2] Group 1: Registration Data - France saw a 55% year-over-year increase in Tesla registrations, while Spain surged by 74% [2] - In Norway, Tesla reclaimed the 1 brand position with 1,210 registrations, marking a 75.6% increase from 689 units sold in February 2025 [2] - The Model Y was particularly dominant in Norway, accounting for 1,073 units, which is nearly 89% of Tesla's total registrations in the country [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rebound in registrations is attributed to the introduction of cheaper versions of the Model Y and Model 3 in Europe, with the Model Y Standard starting at $39,990 [3] - Despite the positive registration data, there is skepticism regarding Q1 deliveries, with a 65% probability that Tesla will deliver fewer than 350,000 vehicles globally [4] Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Morningstar's Michael Field expressed concerns about the competitive advantage of Chinese automakers like BYD, suggesting it may be insurmountable [5] - Conversely, Wedbush's Dan Ives maintains a bullish outlook with a $600 base case and an $800 bull case for Tesla, emphasizing that 2026 will be a crucial year for the company [5] Group 4: Stock Performance - Tesla's stock is currently trading around $401, reflecting a 10% decline this year [6] - The market appears to be pricing Tesla's valuation as increasingly decoupled from its car business, with the next major test expected when Q1 delivery numbers are released in early April [6]