小摩：中资保险股落后大市 偏好中国平安

Core Viewpoint - After the Lunar New Year holiday, the performance of Chinese H-share insurance companies has lagged behind the market, primarily due to concerns over short-term profit risks, lack of data points, and macroeconomic trends post-holiday [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Risks - Major insurance companies have not yet released positive profit forecasts, contributing to market concerns [1] - There is a lack of disclosed monthly premium income data, which adds to uncertainty [1] - The macroeconomic outlook following the Lunar New Year holiday is under scrutiny [1] Group 2: Future Catalysts - The sector is expected to regain momentum as the earnings announcement period approaches, driven by five key catalysts [1] - Increased discussions on total shareholder returns [1] - Management's optimistic guidance on life insurance sales prospects for fiscal year 2026 [1] - Solid solvency capital status projected for Q4 2025 [1] - Decrease in funding costs [1] - Enhanced confidence in the recovery of the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) for life insurance [1] Group 3: Company Preferences and Ratings - The company prefers China Ping An (02318) due to its recovery in life insurance sales and attractive valuation [1] - China Life (02628) is also favored for its strong life insurance sales growth and discussions on enhancing shareholder returns [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned "Overweight" ratings to China Ping An and China Life H-shares, with target prices of HKD 100 and HKD 40 respectively [1] Group 4: Profit Forecasts and Market Consensus - Morgan Stanley believes that insurance companies do not need to issue profit forecasts unless annual net profit changes exceed 50% [2] - The firm forecasts net profit growth for China Life, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance (02601) at 47%, 19%, and 10% year-on-year for fiscal year 2025 respectively [2] - The market consensus for net profit in fiscal year 2026 shows a projected decline of 9%, indicating limited risk for further downward adjustments at this stage [2]