UBS raises average Brent price forecasts for first quarter, full year 2026

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its average Brent crude oil price forecasts for the first quarter and full year 2026 due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz [1] Price Forecasts - The average Brent price is now projected to be $71 per barrel in Q1 2026, with an expectation of around $80 per barrel in March [1] - For the full year 2026, the average Brent price forecast has been increased to $72 per barrel, which is a $10 increase from previous estimates [1] - UBS maintains its forecasts for 2027 and 2028 at $70 and $75 per barrel, respectively, with potential upside risks [1] Risk Factors - Strikes on regional energy infrastructure, such as Qatar LNG, could push Brent prices above $90 per barrel [1] - A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices past $100 per barrel [1] - While a near-term de-escalation may reduce some risk premium, prices are unlikely to fall back to the $60 per barrel level seen at the beginning of the year [1] Current Market Conditions - Brent crude was trading near $82.32 per barrel, having closed at its highest since January 2025 [1] - U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was around $74.73 per barrel, also at its highest since June [1]