Saia’s tonnage declines moderate in February

Core Insights - Saia's tonnage decline moderated in February, with a year-over-year decrease of 2.7%, an improvement from January's 7% decline, driven by a 0.3% increase in daily shipments [1] - The company expects tonnage comparisons to ease starting in April, with prior-year comparisons turning negative by May [2] Tonnage and Shipments - February's tonnage was down 2.7% year-over-year, while January's was down 7%, indicating a positive trend in daily shipment counts [1] - On a two-year stacked comparison, tonnage was up 9.5% in February and 6.8% in January [2] Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered a reading of 52.4 in February, indicating expansion, with the new orders subindex at 55.8, suggesting future activity [3] Pricing and Revenue Metrics - Contract renewal pricing increased by 5.9% in February, following a 6.6% increase in January, with an average increase of 4.9% in the fourth quarter [4] Margin and Operational Performance - Saia expects to outperform the typical sequential margin deterioration from the fourth to first quarter, with a reported operating ratio of 91.1% in the first quarter of 2025 [5] - The full-year 2026 outlook anticipates a year-over-year improvement of 100 to 200 basis points, contingent on modest volume and yield growth [6] Expansion and Market Position - Saia has opened 39 terminals over the past three years, enhancing its position as a national carrier, although these new service centers have impacted margins in recent quarters [6] - Shares of SAIA increased by 0.4% compared to a 0.8% decline in the S&P 500 [6]