Three months after my previous analysis , Saia, Inc. ( SAIA ) remains quite weak, which opposes my bullish outlook. However, I perfectly understand that the cautious stance of the market is valid amid macroeconomic volatility. And II have been working in the logistics sector for almost two decades. I have been into stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade. Currently, I focus on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ Stocks, particularly in banks, telco, logistics, and hotels. Since 2014, I have been tr ...

Financial Performance - Operating revenue for Q3 2025 was $839,644,000, a slight decrease of 0.5% compared to $842,103,000 in Q3 2024[14] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $86,316,000, down 6.2% from $92,748,000 in Q3 2024[14] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2025 was $3.23, down from $3.47 in Q3 2024, reflecting a decrease of 6.9%[14] - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $207,517,000, a decrease of 27.5% compared to $285,962,000 for the same period in 2024[32] - Revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased to $2,444,334,000, up 1.0% from $2,420,122,000 in 2024[32] - Basic earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $7.76, down 27.5% from $10.72 in 2024[34] - Operating revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $2.4 billion, up 1.0% from the same period in 2024[64] - Consolidated operating income for the third quarter of 2025 was $118.6 million, down from $125.2 million in the prior year quarter, resulting in an operating ratio of 85.9%[65] - Net income for the third quarter of 2025 was $86.3 million, or $3.22 per diluted share, compared to $92.7 million, or $3.46 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2024[72] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets increased to $496,994,000 as of September 30, 2025, up 14.0% from $435,769,000 at December 31, 2024[12] - Total assets reached $3,500,960,000, representing a 10.5% increase from $3,166,857,000 at December 31, 2024[12] - Long-term debt, less current portion, increased to $218,000,000 as of September 30, 2025, compared to $194,981,000 at December 31, 2024[12] - The company’s total debt increased to $219,199,000 as of September 30, 2025, from $200,294,000 at December 31, 2024[37] - Total stockholders' equity increased to $2,526,027,000 as of September 30, 2025, up 9.3% from $2,311,271,000 at December 31, 2024[12] Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash provided by operating activities was $457,665,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $418,963,000 in 2024, reflecting a 9.2% increase[21] - The company reported a net cash used in investing activities of $(454,472,000) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, a decrease of 47.8% from $(868,224,000) in 2024[21] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $35,500,000, compared to $14,405,000 at the end of the same period in 2024[21] - Net cash used in investing activities decreased by $413.7 million to $454.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $868.2 million in the prior year, primarily due to the acquisition of terminals from Yellow Corporation[86] Operational Metrics - Operating expenses for Q3 2025 totaled $721,034,000, a marginal increase of 0.2% from $716,932,000 in Q3 2024[14] - LTL shipments decreased by 1.9% to 2.3 million shipments in Q3 2025, while LTL tonnage was down 1.5% to 1.6 million tons[62] - LTL revenue per shipment, excluding fuel surcharge, increased by 0.3% to $294.35 in Q3 2025[62] - The operating ratio for Q3 2025 was 85.9%, compared to 85.1% in Q3 2024[54] - Salaries, wages, and employee benefits increased by $2.9 million in the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher group health insurance costs[66] Debt and Financing - The company had outstanding borrowings of $118,000,000 under the Revolving Credit Facility as of September 30, 2025, compared to $94,000,000 at December 31, 2024[39] - The company’s liquidity needs primarily arise from capital investments and working capital requirements, with $445,600,000 available under the Revolving Credit Facility as of September 30, 2025[39] - The Company entered into a $350 million uncommitted Private Shelf Agreement with PGIM, Inc., allowing the issuance of senior notes through November 9, 2026[40] - The Company issued senior promissory notes totaling $100 million under a Private Shelf Agreement, bearing interest at 6.09% per annum, maturing on May 1, 2029[92] - The Revolving Credit Facility was amended to increase commitments by $300 million to a total of $600 million, with a maturity date extended to December 9, 2029[89] Compliance and Risk Management - As of September 30, 2025, the Company maintained compliance with a consolidated net lease adjusted leverage ratio of less than 3.50 to 1.00[43] - The Company was in compliance with its debt covenants under both the Revolving Credit Facility and the Private Shelf Agreement as of September 30, 2025[94] - The Company is exposed to market risks including interest rates and diesel fuel prices, with a fuel surcharge program in place to mitigate risks from rising diesel prices[100] Miscellaneous - The effective tax rate was 24.8% for the quarters ended September 30, 2025, and 2024[71] - Working capital at September 30, 2025, was $201.1 million, an increase from $90.7 million at September 30, 2024[84] - The company implemented a 5.9% general rate increase on October 1, 2025, affecting approximately 25% of operating revenue[80] - The company anticipates a 3.0% salary and wage increase for all employees, excluding executives, effective October 1, 2025[81] - Contractual obligations for operating leases totaled $152.9 million as of September 30, 2025, with purchase obligations amounting to $39.7 million[96] - The Company has accrued approximately $3.5 million for uncertain tax positions and $99.0 million for claims and insurance liabilities as of September 30, 2025[98]

Core Viewpoint - Saia is focusing on cost controls and efficiency initiatives to navigate through current challenges while awaiting a market recovery [1] Financial Performance - Saia reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.81, exceeding consensus estimates by 25 cents but down 65 cents year-over-year [1] - Revenue for the quarter was $840 million, slightly down year-over-year but $11 million above consensus estimates [2] - Tonnage declined 1.5% year-over-year, with daily shipments down 2% year-over-year but up 3% from the second quarter [4][5] Tonnage Trends - Tonnage showed a deteriorating trend throughout the quarter, with a 0.9% increase in July followed by declines of 2.2% and 3.3% in August and September, respectively [3] - October tonnage is down 4% year-over-year, with management noting weaker performance in the first weeks of the month [3] Operational Efficiency - The adjusted operating ratio was reported at 87.6%, which is 250 basis points worse year-over-year but 20 basis points better than the second quarter [7] - New terminals showed a 100 basis points improvement in operating ratio and are now operating below a 95% average [8] Pricing Environment - Management indicated that the pricing environment remains rational, with contractual rate increases averaging 5.1% in the quarter and a new general rate increase of 5.9% implemented on October 1 [6]

Core Insights - Saia reported revenue of $839.64 million for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a decrease of 0.3% year-over-year, but a positive surprise of +0.75% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $833.38 million [1] - The company's EPS was $2.81, down from $3.46 in the same quarter last year, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $2.54 by +10.63% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Operating Ratio was reported at 85.9%, better than the estimated 88.7% by analysts [4] - LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) Shipments totaled 2,333, surpassing the estimate of 2,320 [4] - LTL pounds per shipment were 1,355, slightly below the average estimate of 1,363 [4] - LTL revenue per hundredweight (CWT), excluding fuel surcharge, was $21.72, compared to the estimated $21.86 [4] - LTL Tonnage was reported at 1,581.00 KTon, marginally above the estimate of 1,580.35 KTon [4] - LTL Revenue Per Hundredweight (CWT) was $25.76, in line with the average estimate of $25.75 [4] Stock Performance - Saia's shares have returned -5.6% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The third quarter revenue was $839.6 million, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous year, reflecting the macroeconomic landscape [12][18] - The adjusted operating ratio increased to 87.6%, up from 85.1% a year ago, primarily due to a decrease in adjusted cost per shipment [18] - The diluted earnings per share were $3.22, down from $3.46 in the same quarter last year, while adjusted diluted earnings per share were $2.81 [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ramping markets, consisting of 39 terminals opened since early 2022, improved their operating ratio by over 100 basis points compared to the second quarter, now operating at a sub-95 [4][5] - Shipments per workday decreased by 1.9% year-over-year but improved by 3.2% sequentially [8][12] - The cargo claims ratio was 0.54%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter below 0.6%, indicating strong service performance [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 3% sequential increase in shipments, but a 4.8% decrease compared to the third quarter of 2024 [9] - The fuel surcharge revenue increased by 2.1%, accounting for 15.2% of total revenue compared to 14.8% a year ago [12] - The overall freight market has shown softer trends in 2025, impacting shipment volumes [8][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on customer service, network optimization, and cost control, with an emphasis on expanding its national footprint to enhance customer relationships [4][5] - A general rate increase of 5.9% was implemented on October 1, impacting approximately 25% of operating revenue [11] - The company aims to leverage its investments in network expansion to become a significant player in the less-than-truckload (LTL) industry [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the economic backdrop remains uncertain, but the company is well-positioned to adapt and leverage its network investments [20][21] - The company anticipates that the current market conditions are in the early stages of realizing its full potential, with expectations for improved performance as the market stabilizes [21] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to maintain high service levels while managing costs effectively [19][20] Other Important Information - The company recorded a $14.5 million net operating expense reduction from a gain on real estate disposal and impairment [2] - Salaries, wages, and benefits increased by 0.7% year-over-year, driven by higher employee-related costs [13] - Accident claims and insurance expenses rose by 22.5% year-over-year, primarily due to existing claims development and inflation [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in October regarding tonnage and shipments - Management reported that shipments in October are down around 3.5%, with tonnage down about 4%, indicating a softer start to the month compared to expectations [24][25] Question: Updates on new terminals and their performance - Management highlighted that the new terminals are showing improved productivity and cost efficiency, with expectations for continued improvement as they mature [32][34] Question: Pricing environment and yield metrics - Management noted that the pricing environment remains disciplined, with a focus on maintaining yield metrics despite challenges in the market [40][41] Question: Network optimization efforts - Management discussed ongoing network optimization initiatives, emphasizing the importance of AI tools in improving operational efficiency [48][50] Question: Capacity and technology investments - Management indicated that the company has ample capacity across its network and continues to invest in technology to drive efficiencies [63][64] Question: Growth opportunities in a down year - Management expressed confidence in the ability to grow share-of-wallet with existing customers, even in a challenging economic environment [90][91]

INVESTOR PRESENTATION T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 2 5 F O R W A RD-LO O K I N G S TAT E M E N TS The Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) encourages companies to disclose forward-looking information so that investors can better understand the future prospects of a company and make informed investment decisions. This presentation contains these types of statements, which are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as "anticip ...

Core Insights - Saia (SAIA) reported quarterly earnings of $2.81 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.54 per share, but down from $3.46 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of +10.63% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $839.64 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.75%, although this is a decrease from $842.1 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Saia has outperformed consensus EPS estimates three times in the last four quarters and has also topped revenue estimates three times during the same period [2] Earnings Outlook - The future performance of Saia's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the revisions of earnings estimates [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.97 on revenues of $796.41 million, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $9.05 on revenues of $3.23 billion [7] Industry Context - The Transportation - Truck industry, to which Saia belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 3% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may negatively impact stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that the industry outlook can significantly affect Saia's stock performance [5][8]

Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $839.6 million, a 0.3% decrease compared to Q3 2024[6] - Operating income decreased by 5.2% to $118.6 million, while adjusted operating income fell by 16.8% to $104.1 million[6] - Diluted earnings per share were $3.22, down from $3.46 in Q3 2024; adjusted diluted earnings per share were $2.81[3][6] - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $207,517, down 27.5% from $285,962 in the same period of 2024[26] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $3.23, down from $3.47 in Q3 2024, reflecting a decrease of 6.9%[26] Operating Efficiency - Operating ratio increased to 85.9%, with an adjusted operating ratio of 87.6% compared to 85.1% in the previous year[6][19] - The operating ratio for Q3 2025 was 85.9%, compared to 85.1% in Q3 2024, indicating a slight increase in operational efficiency[30] - Operating expenses increased to $721,034 in Q3 2025, compared to $716,932 in Q3 2024, reflecting a rise of 0.2%[26] Cash and Debt Management - Cash on hand at the end of Q3 2025 was $35.5 million, up from $14.4 million in Q3 2024; total debt increased to $219.2 million from $191.0 million[7] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2025 were $35,500, up from $19,473 at the end of Q4 2024[28] - Long-term debt, less current portion, rose to $218,000 in Q3 2025 from $194,981 in Q4 2024, indicating an increase of 11.8%[24] Capital Expenditures - Net capital expenditures for the first nine months of 2025 were $446.1 million, down from $873.2 million in the same period of 2024[8] - The company anticipates net capital expenditures of approximately $550 million to $600 million for 2025, subject to market conditions[8] Operational Metrics - LTL shipments per workday decreased by 1.9%, and LTL tonnage per workday decreased by 1.5%[6] - LTL tonnage decreased by 1.5% to 1,581 in Q3 2025 from 1,605 in Q3 2024[30] Asset Growth - Total assets increased to $3,500,960 as of September 30, 2025, compared to $3,166,857 at the end of 2024, marking a growth of 10.5%[24] Strategic Focus - The company continues to focus on technology investments and network optimization to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency[5] - A gain from the sale of a terminal of $16.4 million was recorded, contributing to an increase in operating income[16]

Core Insights - Saia, Inc. announced the retirement of Rohit Lal, Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer, after eight years with the company, effective immediately [1][2] - Tarak Patel has been appointed as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer, bringing extensive experience in technology and digital transformation [1][3] Leadership Transition - Rohit Lal has significantly advanced Saia's digital capabilities and IT infrastructure during his tenure since joining in 2017 [2] - Lal will remain with the company as an advisor until the first quarter of 2026 to ensure a smooth transition [2] New Executive Profile - Tarak Patel previously served as CIO at Smurfit WestRock, leading a global transformation in processes and technologies [3] - Patel has held leadership roles at E. & J. Gallo Winery and Henkel, focusing on enterprise-wide technology initiatives and supply chain integrations [3] - He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Computer Engineering from the University of California, San Diego [3] Company Overview - Saia, Inc. offers a variety of transportation services, including less-than-truckload, non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services [4] - The company operates 213 terminals nationwide, headquartered in Georgia [4]

Core Insights - A significant divide has emerged in the transportation sector, with airlines performing well while trucking companies are struggling in bear market territory [1][2] - Investors are encouraged to consider trucking companies like SAIA Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., and RXO Inc. for potential rebounds as market conditions improve [2] Group 1: Trucking Industry Overview - Trucking companies are currently trading well into bear market territory, affected by tariff fears and consumption issues [2] - The Manufacturing PMI is a key macroeconomic indicator for the trucking industry, which has been weakening recently [3][4] - A potential rebound in the PMI could set the stage for recovery in the trucking sector, especially with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates [4] Group 2: SAIA Inc. Analysis - SAIA's stock is forecasted to have a 12-month price target of $349.89, indicating a 17.89% upside from its current price of $296.80 [3][5] - SAIA delivered $2.67 in earnings per share (EPS) in the most recent quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.39, suggesting strong near-term potential [6] - The company operates a hub-and-spoke model that is expected to outperform during a PMI recovery [5] Group 3: J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Analysis - J.B. Hunt's stock has a 12-month price forecast of $160.62, representing a 16.49% upside from its current price of $137.88 [8] - The company has a strong presence in diversified logistics and intermodal trucking services, which helps cushion against cyclicality [8] - Institutional investors are showing confidence in J.B. Hunt, with Corient Private Wealth increasing its holdings by 3.7% [9] Group 4: RXO Inc. Analysis - RXO's stock forecast indicates a 12-month price target of $17.08, with a modest 2.62% upside from its current price of $16.64 [11] - The company benefits from a digital broker marketplace, allowing for increased leverage with minimal capital investment [11] - RXO reported an EPS of four cents, exceeding the two-cent consensus, indicating potential for growth despite bearish market conditions [12]