Toyota, Hyundai and Chinese automakers expected to be most impacted by Iran war

Core Insights - The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran poses significant risks to non-domestic automakers, particularly Toyota, Hyundai, and Chinese brands like Chery, as analyzed by Bernstein [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - International automakers account for approximately one-third of sales in the Middle East, with Toyota leading at 17%, followed by Hyundai at 10% and Chery at 5% [2]. - In Iran, local automakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA dominate the market, with Chery holding a 6% market share [2]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - The Middle East has become an increasingly important market for Chinese auto exports, representing about 17% of China's passenger vehicle exports in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Costs - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could extend transit times by 10-14 days, leading to increased logistics costs and delayed deliveries, which would negatively impact sales [4][5].